AI Overviews and click-through rates: what the data shows in 2026

Introduction

Yes, organic clicks are lower when Google shows an AI Overview. Published estimates range from about one third to more than half, depending on how each study measured it. Every figure below comes from studies published between July 2025 and April 2026, and none of them is a clean measurement of your own site.

Below we compare four sources, explain why their numbers disagree, and show what Google says you can measure.

What the main studies found

The studies use different methods. Read each number with its method attached.

Pew: browsing data from 900 U.S. adults

Pew Research Center tracked the Google browsing of 900 U.S. adults in March 2025, covering 68,879 searches. Users clicked a traditional result in 8% of visits when an AI summary appeared, against 15% of visits without one. Clicks on a link inside the summary happened in just 1% of visits. Sessions ended on the results page 26% of the time with a summary and 16% without.

Pew found that 18% of searches in its sample produced an AI summary. It describes an association, not proof that the summaries caused the drop.

Ahrefs: 300,000 keywords

Ahrefs compared December 2025 Search Console data with a December 2023 baseline across 300,000 keywords. In its February 2026 update, the presence of an AI Overview correlates with a 58% lower average CTR for the top-ranking page. Position 1 CTR on AI Overview keywords fell from 0.073 to 0.016, against a forecast of 0.037 without Overviews.

The effect shrinks lower on the page: about 51% at position 2, 46% at position 3 and 19% at position 10. Ahrefs analyzed desktop CTR only, built its no-Overview comparison as a forecast, and sells SEO tools. It labels the result a correlation.

A randomized experiment: 1,065 desktop Chrome users

The only randomized evidence is an SSRN working paper by Saharsh Agarwal and Ananya Sen, reported by Search Engine Journal in April 2026. In January and February 2026, a Chrome extension hid AI Overviews for a random group of 1,065 U.S. participants for two weeks.

AI Overviews appeared on 42% of queries. Hiding them raised outbound clicks per search from 0.38 to 0.61. Outbound organic clicks fell 38% on queries that triggered an Overview, and zero-click searches rose from 54% to 72%. The paper is an unreviewed draft, the authors call the results exploratory, and the sample is limited to desktop Chrome users.

Why the numbers do not match

They measure different things. Pew counts the share of visits with a click. Ahrefs measures position 1 CTR from Search Console averages. The experiment counts outbound clicks per search. A 58% drop in one metric and a 38% drop in another are not in conflict.

Device, period and query mix also differ. Ahrefs covers desktop CTR and informational keywords, Pew covers one month of one panel, and the experiment covers desktop Chrome only. Only the experiment assigns people to see or not see an Overview at random. The others compare queries that happen to trigger one with queries that do not, and those queries are not alike.

Treat the 38% to 58% range as a plausible band for informational queries on desktop, not a forecast for your site.

Is the decline still getting worse?

Not according to Seer Interactive. Its April 2026 update covers 53 brands, 5,471,127 queries and 2.43 billion organic impressions through February 2026.

CTR on Overview queries hit its low in December 2025 and recovered by February 2026. The gap with non-Overview queries narrowed but did not close. Seer states the results are directional and show correlation, not causation. It also notes that each query carries a static Overview label from its latest snapshot, not a real-time one.

Does being cited in an AI Overview help?

Somewhat, though not enough to win back the lost clicks. In Seer's December 2025 data for informational queries, brands cited in the Overview got 0.95% organic CTR. Uncited brands got 0.55%, and queries with no Overview got 3.97%.

Seer warns against reading this as cause and effect: higher-authority brands are more likely to be cited in the first place. Citation is worth pursuing, and our guide on how to get cited in AI Overviews covers the mechanics. Think of it as a way to shrink the loss, not erase it.

What you can and cannot measure in Search Console

Google does not split out AI Overview clicks. Its documentation says AI feature traffic is included in the overall search traffic in Search Console, reported under the Web search type. A page can appear as a supporting link if it is "indexed and eligible to be shown in Google Search with a snippet", and Google lists no additional technical requirements.

So you can't read your AI Overview CTR directly. You can compare CTR on query groups before and after Overviews appeared for them. Our walkthrough on measuring SEO results with GA4 and Search Console shows the setup.

What to do with the numbers

Start with your own data, not the averages above. Segment informational queries from navigational and transactional ones, because the studies show the effect concentrates on informational searches. Compare CTR and clicks for the same queries across several months, and record which ones now trigger an Overview.

Then track whether your brand is cited. Our piece on tracking AI citations and brand mentions covers a practical approach. If you want help reading this for a specific site, get in touch with Kallos Labs.

Frequently asked questions

Do AI Overviews reduce organic click-through rate?

Every dataset reviewed here shows lower organic CTR when an AI Overview appears. The size ranges from 38% fewer outbound organic clicks in a randomized experiment to a 58% lower position 1 CTR in Ahrefs data. Only the experiment used random assignment.

Is the CTR drop getting worse in 2026?

Not in Seer's data. Organic CTR on AI Overview queries was 1.31% in December 2025 and 2.36% in February 2026. Queries without an Overview were at 3.82% in February 2026, so the gap persists.

Does Search Console report AI Overview clicks separately?

No. Google says AI feature traffic is included in overall Search Console traffic, under the Web search type. You can compare query groups over time, but there is no dedicated AI Overview report.

Does getting cited in an AI Overview fix the click loss?

Not fully. In Seer's December 2025 informational-query data, cited brands got 0.95% organic CTR against 0.55% for uncited brands and 3.97% with no Overview. Seer cautions that higher-authority brands are more likely to be cited.